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Prediction for CME (2026-07-24T04:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-24T04:38Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47753/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the SE in STEREO A COR2 starting around 2026-07-24T04:38Z. It is also seen to the S in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. The source is a filament eruption centered around S20E15 best seen in SDO AIA 193 starting as early as 2026-07-24T04:04Z. The arrival of this CME may have been detected at L1 at 2026-07-27T15:27Z, characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from ~5nT to 7nT, an increase in speed from ~360 km/s to ~420 km/s, and increases in density and temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-07-27T15:27Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-28T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SIDC
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 60727
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 27 Jul 2026, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Jul 2026  10CM FLUX: 154 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Jul 2026  10CM FLUX: 156 / AP: 017
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Jul 2026  10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 007

Coronal mass ejections: A Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) was observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery around 20:00 UTC on July 26 and a filament eruption
was observed in SDO/AIA 304 at 04:32 UTC on July 27 near the centre of the
visible disk. Analysis of both events is ongoing.

Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters returned to
slow solar wind condtions.  The solar wind speed ranged between 476 km/s to
612 km /s. The total interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 2 to 6 nT,
with the Bz reaching a minimum of -4 nT. The phi-angle was in the negative
sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive sector. The
wind conditions are expected to become enhanced in the next 24 hours, due
to the arrival of a CME that left the sun on July 24.

Geomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions were quiet globally (Kp 1-2) and
locally quiet to unsettled (k BEL 1-3) in the last 24 hours. Active to
minor storm conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Lead Time: 24.87 hour(s)
Difference: -12.55 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-07-26T14:35Z

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